The Art of Preseason Predictions: Lessons from a College Football Analyst
Let me start by saying this: predicting college football outcomes is less of a science and more of a high-stakes guessing game. Personally, I think it’s what makes the sport so fascinating—and so humbling. Every year, I sit down with my preseason AP Top 25 ballot, armed with analytics, historical data, and a healthy dose of intuition. And every year, I’m reminded that even the most educated guesses can go spectacularly wrong.
Take last season, for example. As I reviewed my 2025 preseason rankings, I couldn’t help but notice the stark contrast between my hits and misses. What makes this particularly fascinating is how some teams defied all logic, while others followed the script almost too perfectly. If you take a step back and think about it, this unpredictability is what keeps the sport—and analysts like me—on our toes.
The Teams That Made Me Look Smart
Let’s start with the successes, because, let’s be honest, everyone loves a pat on the back. Ohio State and Georgia? Nailed it. I had them at No. 4 and No. 5, respectively, and they finished at No. 5 and No. 6. What this really suggests is that when you have a solid foundation—returning talent, coaching stability, and a manageable schedule—the results often follow.
But here’s the thing: even these successes weren’t without their nuances. Ohio State, for instance, had a few close calls that could have derailed their season. In my opinion, what separates the good analysts from the great ones isn’t just getting the rankings right but understanding the why behind them.
The Teams That Left Me Scratching My Head
Now, let’s talk about the misses. Clemson and LSU? Ouch. I gave them both an F, and rightfully so. What many people don’t realize is that these weren’t just bad predictions—they were avoidable mistakes. With Clemson, I let the offseason hype cloud my judgment. I knew deep down that their 7-6 record the previous year wasn’t a fluke, but I ignored my instincts. Lesson learned: trust yourself, even when the crowd is shouting otherwise.
LSU was a different kind of failure. I had too much faith in Brian Kelly’s ability to turn things around. From my perspective, this was a classic case of overestimating a coach’s impact. College football is a player’s game, and no amount of coaching brilliance can compensate for a lack of talent on the field.
The Surprises That Changed Everything
Then there were the teams that completely flipped the script. Indiana, for instance, went from unranked to No. 1 with a perfect 16-0 season. Honestly, I didn’t see that coming—and I’m not sure anyone did. What makes this particularly interesting is how it challenges our assumptions about what makes a championship team. Indiana wasn’t loaded with five-star recruits or a Hall of Fame coach. They just executed better than anyone else.
Another surprise? Texas A&M. I had them at No. 10, and they finished at No. 8. But what’s more intriguing is how they got there. Their season was a rollercoaster, with clutch wins and narrow escapes. One thing that immediately stands out is how much luck—or fate, depending on who you ask—plays a role in college football.
The Broader Lessons
If there’s one takeaway from all of this, it’s that preseason predictions are as much art as they are science. Personally, I think the key is to strike a balance between data and intuition. Too much reliance on analytics can blind you to the human element of the game, while too much gut feeling can lead to reckless decisions.
Another detail that I find especially interesting is how quickly narratives can shift. A team that’s written off in August can become a contender by November, and vice versa. This raises a deeper question: how much of our analysis is shaped by the stories we tell ourselves?
Looking Ahead
As I prepare for the 2026 season, I’m taking these lessons to heart. I’ll still lean on the data, but I’ll also trust my instincts more. And I’ll remind myself that no matter how much I prepare, college football will always find a way to surprise me.
In the end, that’s what makes this job so rewarding. It’s not about being right all the time—it’s about learning from the mistakes, celebrating the successes, and embracing the chaos. Because, let’s face it, without the chaos, it wouldn’t be college football.
